Fight!

Post by **Dog Pants** » March 9th, 2008, 15:36

We had a bit of an idea the other night while fannying about. Using confusion or a similar power, we could face off two bad guys and bet on the fight. With this in mind let me introduce you to The Fight promoter!

I've run about 25 test fights (I plan on doing about 100 before I start taking bets) so that I can get a good idea of the odds, so now I need to work out how the results translate to betting odds. Anyone able to help me out here? The Wiki page on fixed-odds betting isn't very helpful.

Lateralus · Post by **Lateralus** » March 10th, 2008, 14:10

I know nothing about betting odds really, it's all a mystery to me. However, I'm impressed with how close you are taking this enterprise to being Pure Science. You should be taking a cut too, or you'll be missing out on step 5 of running a bookmaker's.

Post by **Dog Pants** » March 10th, 2008, 15:22

Well apparently a 'fair' book (ie. one with accurate odds) should all add up to 100%. A bookmaker will throw these odds slightly in their favour so that the book will add up to, say 110%. They thereby give themselves an average profit of 10% on all the bets they take. I tried this myself but it didn't quite look right:

The raw data from the fights I made. Some were made void by things like one of them running away, someone else getting involved, or me missing with a confuse and one of them not fighting back as a result.

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BB Chopper Vs BB Brawler = Chopper
BB Chopper Vs BB Slammer = Chopper
BB Slammer Vs BB Brawler = Brawler
BB Slammer Vs BB Brawler = Slammer
BB Slugger Vs BB Chopper = Slugger
BB Brawler Vs BB Slicer = Slicer
BB Slugger Vs BB Slicer = Slicer
BB Slugger vs BB chopper = Chopper
BB Slicer Vs BB Brawler = Brawler
BB Slammer Vs BB Chopper = Chopper
BB Slicer Vs BB Slammer = Slicer
BB Chopper Vs BB Slicer = Slicer
BB Chopper Vs BB Slicer = Chopper
BB Slugger Vs BB Brawler = Slugger
BB Chopper Vs BB Slammer = Chopper
BB Brawler Vs BB Slammer = Slammer
BB Brawler Vs BB Slugger = Brawler
BB Chopper Vs BB Slugger = Slugger
BB Slammer Vs BB brawler = brawler
BB Slammer Vs BB Chopper = Slammer
BB Slammer Vs BB Brawler = Brawler
BB Slicer Vs BB Brawler = Brawler
BB Slugger Vs BB Chopper = Slugger
BB Brawler Vs BB Chopper = Brawler
BB Slammer Vs BB Slicer = Slicer
BB Slicer Vs BB Chopper = Slicer
BB Slugger Vs BB Slammer = Slammer

Using this I worked out the percentage odds of each class winning their fight based on Wins/Fights*100, thus:

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Blood Brother Brawler = 58.33%
Blood Brother Chopper = 60.00%
Blood Brother Slammer = 33.33%
Blood Brother Slicer = 66.67%
Blood Brother Slugger = 37.50%

Then I added 5% to each probability to give me my 10% profit (5% per fighter). Finally I converted the percentage into a fraction for the odds. This last step is where I've gone wrong, because I'll never get odds against (eg. 1:10 - put £10 on to get a £1 profit for winning). So I need to find out how the probability of an outcome is converted to betting odds.

It still won't add up to 100%, because to do it accurately I'd have to run, say, 10 fights of every combination of class, which is 250 fights. It took me several hours just to do the 30 or so it took to get those results.

Post by **HereComesPete** » March 10th, 2008, 19:16

That'll do pants, that'll do.

Seriously though - it's a bit of fun in spandex land, just run with those odds and get the 5punky CoH types to bet on it.